Aviation Day: The Future of Air Transport

ITB Aviation Day on 9 March 2007 addresses key aviation issues Despite adverse operating conditions over the last couple of years, including high fuel prices, terrorist threats, natural disasters, and new taxes on passengers and airlines, air transport has remained resilient.

Even better, it is booming again. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently released its January-November traffic results, which pointed to year-on-year passenger traffic growth for international scheduled air transport services of 5.8% – measured in terms of revenue passenger-km (RPK) – and an average passenger load factor systemwide of 76.1%.

In a recent briefing, Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO, said that IATA was even expecting a recovery in its members’ financial performance. IATA airlines are expected to have recorded a combined loss of just under US $500 million in 2006 – well down on 2005 – and they should become profitable in 2007. This would mark the first year of profitability since 2000. So things are really looking up.

Over the next few years the airline industry will continue its decade-old restructuring, which has so far contributed to making the industry more cost-efficient, as well as reshaping all the elements of the air travel experience for customers. The ITB Aviation day, which is now considered one of the leading events in the annual industry calendar, will focus on all the changes that have taken, and are taking, place within the airline industry and the impact these will have in the future.

New aircraft and operating models

The introduction of new aircraft models into service – such as the Airbus A380, Boeing 787, and the extended version of the Boeing 747 – will have a significant impact on airline network development, for example. The giant A380 will finally enter into service by the end of 2007, bringing increased capacity to world markets. The Boeing 787 is a new medium-sized aircraft offering exceptional comfort, with the capability of flying non-stop over a distance of up to 15,700 km – equivalent to Shanghai-Caracas. The guest speaker at the panel discussion entitled “Airbus versus Boeing” from 10.15 to 11.15 a.m. will be Tim Clark, President of Emirate Airlines, the carrier with the largest number of orders for the Airbus A380. Also present will be Tjhoen Onn Thoeng, Senior Vice President Europe of Singapore Airlines, which in October will foreseeably be the first airline to put an A 380 into service.

Trend towards consolidation in the low-cost and charter markets

At the other end of the scale, low-cost carriers (LCCs) will continue to influence commercial aviation. Joachim Hunold, CEO of Air Berlin, will share his views on whether the time is really ripe for consolidation between the low-cost and charter markets. In 2006, a number of charter and budget carriers, such as Hapag Lloyd, merged their operations. And the charter carriers’ dominance has been massively eroded due to the competition from LCCs on many traditional North-South holiday routes in Europe – from the Canary Islands to the Balearics, Greece and Morocco. LCCs are now also testing their ability to fly long-haul routes. Oasis has already launched Hong Kong-London and AirAsia X is expected to move into the market in 2007, competing head on with charter carriers on popular long-haul routes. Carsten Spohr, Chairman of the Executive Board and CEO of Lufthansa Cargo AG will be speaking on the topic of hub management.

Airport privatisation

New aircraft models will also boost traffic at major hubs, stimulating competition between airports. Will privatised airport authorities be able to respond better to new challenges, such as the Airbus A380, the boom in low-cost airline travel, new safety rules or new hub competition? Many airports have been privatised in Europe over the last ten years or so – eg Budapest, Paris, Düsseldorf and Rome, to name only a few – and further privatisations are expected in future. What motivates these investors, and will they do a better job at making airport management a sounder commercial business than their predecessors? After an introductory paper by Dieter Schneiderbauer, Managing Director of Booz Allen Hamilton, leading experts will be discussing these issues from 1.15 to 2.15 p.m.

Passenger air travel of the future

New technology is becoming more and more critical for airports’ and airlines’ operations on the ground, in order to ensure safety and security while speeding up cumbersome passenger and baggage controls. Passengers are already able to check in and print their boarding passes at home before departure, helping to reduce the length of check-in queues at airports. What new cost and time-saving measures can we expect in the near future? The mobility solutions market is growing at an extraordinary rate. How will airline customer procedures that interact with innovative mobility solutions work in the future? From 11.30 a.m. to 12 noon Siemens Business Services will be presenting passenger air travel scenarios of the future.

Business aviation increases its market share

Stricter safety and immigration controls at airports have also had a positive effect on the business aviation sector, which is currently enjoying high growth rates in Europe and in other key markets around the world. Will new aircraft models make flying as cheap as riding a cab?
ITB Aviation Day, which is clearly going to be a day packed with interesting speakers and topics of discussion, is being organised in cooperation with Flugrevue, the event’s media partner, and will be chaired by Prof Dr Adrian von Dörnberg, Professor of Travel & Transport at the University of Applied Sciences.
For more information on this and other events being organised for the ITB Berlin Convention, please contact: itb@messe-berlin.de or check out the ITB Berlin Convention website at www.itb-convention.com.